When Statistics Lie

"Not everything that can be counted, counts.
And not everything that counts can be counted."
Albert Einstein

In a recent article, see here. Social scientist Gregory Paul posits that the mental health of the US is demonstrably harmed by our stubborn insistence on belief in god.

Mr. Paul posits concludes that --

20] The United States’ deep social problems are all the more disturbing
because the nation enjoys exceptional per capita wealth among the major western
nations (Barro and McCleary; Kasman; PEW; UN Development Programme, 2000, 2004).
Spending on health care is much higher as a portion of the GDP and per capita,
by a factor of a third to two or more, than in any other developing democracy
(UN Development Programme, 2000, 2004). The U.S. is therefore the least
efficient western nation in terms of converting wealth into cultural and
physical health. Understanding the reasons for this failure is urgent, and doing
so requires considering the degree to which cause versus effect is responsible
for the observed correlations between social conditions and religiosity versus
secularism.

Obviously there's a lot more in the study and to be fair to Mr. Paul he doesn't suggest that these are hard and fast findings. However, the asking of a question often tells us a lot about the questioner.

Mr. Paul relates correctly that we have our problems. No doubt, see here. But the truth of the matter is by many other standards the United States is doing remarkably well, especially as compared to European countries. (There was an excellent review of these statistics by a Dutch Judicial review that I cannot seem to locate, sorry)

Mr. Paul, it seems, divined the answers to his questions long before he began his study. Just off the top of my head I can think of some reasons why the statistics would seem to back him up, but actually do not.

I llegal immigration must skew the numbers in a negative direction by any reasonable standard, see here, and here.

Illegal Immigration in California
2,209,000 illegal aliens resided in
California in 2000, according to the government’s immigration figures.
Thirty-two percent of all illegal immigrants live in California, making the
state home to the largest population of illegal immigrants in the country. The
number of illegal aliens has increased ten percent since 1996 and 53 percent
since 1992. 70
Illegal immigration cost California taxpayers $8 billion in
1996, the latest year for which a full figure is available. 71 California’s
border counties incurred $79 million in emergency care for illegal aliens, the
highest cost in the country. 72 San Diego County paid $50.3 million during 1999
for criminal justice services and medical care related to illegal aliens.
Imperial County spent $5.4 million on illegal aliens in 1999, according to a
study on behalf of the United States-Mexico Border Counties Coalition. It costs
each person living legally in San Diego and Imperial counties about $18.56 per
year to pay for the costs incurred by illegal immigration. 73
California
incarcerates the most illegal immigrants in the nation. 74 State authorities
requested compensation of $600 million from the federal government in FY ‘99 for
the incarceration of illlegal aliens in state and local jails and prisons (under
the federal State criminal alien Assistance Program, or SCAAP), but it rec3eived
only $240 million in compensation, leaving $360 million in uncompensated costs
to be borne by state taxpayers. (This is the latest year for which full data is
available, but federal SCAAP payments have been shrinking overall.) San
Bernardino County alone spends more than $2.6 million to house illegal
immigrants in its jails.75

And that's just California. So, right there we have an excellent alternative explanation for the deterioration of American society that has nothing to with our shared belief in god.

What other explanations might we find if we weren't lazy pre-judging, non-scientific bastards like Mr. Paul?

Hmmm...This is interesting. One wonders if in fact the breakdown and sell out of the traditional black church might figure into these statistics?

How about these...This is interesting. I wonder if the fashionable hatred in the left of god and all that is holy could play a part in societal breakdown? Naah, too simple.

Mr. Paul, in proud god bashing typical egghead fashion, takes a set of numbers and stands them on thier head. Way to go Mr. Paul, you make everyone who actually cares about the scientific process cringe.