A Good Thing Or A Bad Thing?
Democrats Control The House And Possibly The Senate.
The democrats took of the house (with an 8 seat cushion) and possibly a one seat majority in the senate. The question becomes is this a good or bad thing? On one hand the democrats will be feeling it is a good thing. The republicans will feel it is a bad thing. But lets step back and look at it realistically.
First we need to look at why the Republicans lost so many seats. I think it was more an issue of voter disgust then anything else. This election cycle was one of personal attacks over policy. One of scandal over substance. The ads were just nasty and instead of policy debates it was more about character assassination. I have been alive a few decades and this has got to be the meanest dirtiest election season I have ever seen. Add to this the war in Iraq and the Bush administrations lack of clear policy except stay the course. The lack of border security and real debate on illegal and legal immigration issues.
When the POTUS calls those who disagree with him racists, xenophobes and worse. When illegal aliens march in the streets demanding rights they are not entitled too and the government and MSM are silent except to call for civil debate after the fact. Is it truly any wonder why the voters are disgusted? Add to this the fact that historically the majority party always loses seats in an off year election. This gives you a recipe for a power shift.
Now lets look at the most likely scenarios that will play out at this point. Keep in mind that a percentage of the newly elected democrats are conservative or moderate. And that the two independents have already said they will caucus with the democrats. First the is a democrat controlled house and a republican controlled senate and white house. The second is a democrat controlled congress and a republican controlled white house.
With a democrat controlled house and a republican controlled senate. We see a virtual deadlock for the next two years. The house will spend its time investigating the Bush administration with no real leverage to deal with this issue in any real terms. So pretty much for the next two years it will be the Clinton scandals revisited. All sound bites and no substance. Annoying but not all that harmful. Immigration reform will be a dead issue because no one will touch it two years before a presidential election. Keeping this in mind don’t expect anything of substance out of Washington DC for the next couple of years. Mostly because everyone will be looking at the 08 election and fear shooting themselves and their party in the foot.
The democrats will block anything the republicans try to do and visa versa. Then they will each spend the next two years blaming the other party for the lack of anything substantiate coming out of D.C.. basically a stalemate leaving the Bush Administration in a truly lame duck position. Again annoying but as was once said “better no bill then a bad bill”.
The second scenario is a democrat controlled house and senate and a republican white house. On the surface this looks bad for the republicans, but only on the surface. The last three elections cycles we have heard nothing from the democrats but that if they were in control they would do things better. No solid plans other then we can do better then Bush. Now if they are the majority in congress then it is time to put up or shut up. Does this mean we will see something like Bush’s comprehensive immigration reform bill passed? Possibly but again I doubt it still too hot an issue this close to a presidential election.
An immediate pullout in Iraq? Probable but there in lies a trap waiting to be sprung. Assume we pull our troops out as soon as congress can make it happen, what happens next? I would venture that based on terrorist actions in the past we would soon see more attacks on U.S. soil. Remember the natural progression on terrorist activity. First small attacks overseas until they see no retribution from the U.S. government. Then came bigger and bolder attacks leading to 9-11.
Pulling out of Iraq would embolden them even more to commit greater and more deadly attacks on U.S. soil. The old adage “Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it” still holds true. Will taxes go up? Of course and so will government spending. This will cool an already fragile economy and we will see at the minimum an inflationary spike and possibly a recession. And as the economy weakens and jobs become scarcer you will see tensions rise not just over illegal immigration but all immigration and job out sourcing. Even the most dedicated liberal will get angry when the policies start effecting his pocketbook. Human nature is human nature. When the competition for jobs starts to affect the liberal white collar crowd in the same way it effect the blue collar crowd you will see a change in tune very quickly. The funny thing about liberals is that as long as they get theirs they don’t care what it cost others, but when they have to pay the cost it is a different matter. These are just some of the possible land minds the democrats face if they are in control. But they need to understand it is not the same as in 1994 when they lost control of congress, and they won’t have a twenty year cushion before the bills comes due.
The rules are different now and technology is to blame. In the old days when the mainstream media supplied the news and decided what was print/broadcast worthy the democrats had an advantage. The media decided what to report and what slant to give it.. But in the new media market with the internet bloggers and news sites the old rules really don’t apply. Just ask John Kerry or George W Bush. They discovered the hard way that without controlling what is told to the public your skeletons can and will surface. It doesn’t matter what side of the aisle or fence you live on. The new media is a watch dog for all sides of an issue or candidate. And because it is a wild west secrets don’t stay hidden for long. You trip today and it will still be in the public square two years from now. So with this scenario the democrats will have to put up or risk it all in 08.
Just a note before the flamers start. My opinions are strictly my own. I am neither democrat or republican, liberal or conservative, I am an independent in politics and in moral views. My friends Jake and MJ simply allow me the privilege of sharing my views on their blog and have no responsibility concerning the opinions or conclusions in this article. I will end this with some advice to the Democratic party “Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it”
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